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Iowa Hawkeyes Football Preview: Predicting the 2016 season

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Iowa is the reining Big Ten West division champions, but with the conference going to a nine-game schedule perhaps few teams are more affected than the Hawkeyes. With an annual matchup against in-state rival Iowa State, there is already a built-in Power 5 conference foe, yet relying on ISU to be a strength of schedule help could be a bit much.

Having said that, the Hawkeyes do get pretty lucky in avoiding the calamity that befell their B1G rival, Wisconsin, and won’t have to face the entire gauntlet that is Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State.

With the scheduling gods of the Big Ten smiling down a bit can the Hawkeyes retain their division crown and get over the B1G title game hump? Let’s see what our staff has to say about that.

2016 Iowa Hawkeyes Football Schedule

Date Opponent Time/TV Tickets
Saturday
Sep. 3
RedHawks Miami (OH) RedHawks
Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
2:30pm CT
ESPNU
Buy
Tickets
Saturday
Sep. 10
Cyclones Iowa State Cyclones
Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
6:30pm CT
BTN
Buy
Tickets
Saturday
Sep. 17
Bison North Dakota State Bison
Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
11:00am CT
ESPN/ESPN2
Buy
Tickets
Saturday
Sep. 24
Scarlet Knights at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
High Point Solutions Stadium, Piscataway, NJ
TBA Buy
Tickets
Saturday
Oct. 1
Wildcats Northwestern Wildcats (HC)
Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
11:00am CT
TV TBA
Buy
Tickets
Saturday
Oct. 8
Gophers at Minnesota Golden Gophers
TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
TBA Buy
Tickets
Saturday
Oct. 15
Boilermakers at Purdue Boilermakers
Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
11:00am CT
TV TBA
Buy
Tickets
Saturday
Oct. 22
Badgers Wisconsin Badgers
Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
TBA Buy
Tickets
Saturday
Oct. 29
OFF
Saturday
Nov. 5
Nittany Lions at Penn State Nittany Lions
Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
6:30pm CT
BTN
Buy
Tickets
Saturday
Nov. 12
Wolverines Michigan Wolverines
Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
7:00pm CT
ABC/ESPN/2
Buy
Tickets
Saturday
Nov. 19
Fighting Illini at Illinois Fighting Illini
Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL
TBA Buy
Tickets
Friday
Nov. 25
Cornhuskers Nebraska Cornhuskers
Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
TBA Buy

*courtesy FBschedules.com.

vs. Miami (OH) Redhawks
Andy: Win
Dave: Win
Kevin: Win
Zach: Win

Believe it or not, there was a time where Miami (OH) football was on top of the MAC heap and challenging for national relevance. That time has long since faded away and instead, Redhawks football has become a joke. It hasn’t had a winning season since 2010 and that isn’t going to change in 2016. Look for this to be a big time victory, even if Iowa has that nasty reputation for sliding down to their competition level. Some believe this a trap game, don’t count me in for that.

vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Andy: Win
Dave: Win
Kevin: Win
Zach: Win

You don’t have to remind the Hawkeye faithful that Iowa State hasn’t been kind to them in the Kirk Ferentz era. However, it is a new era in Ames as well and that makes this game very difficult to predict. ISU wasn’t nearly as bad as its record indicated in 2015 and it has some big-time offensive firepower. Iowa’s defense is going to get a stiff test, but will ultimately pull it out in a memorable contest for the Cy-Hawk Trophy.

vs. North Dakota State Bison
Andy: Win
Dave: Loss
Kevin: Win
Zach: Win

Now, this is the ultimate trap game for me. Iowa comes in after the high of beating their in-state rivals and knows Big Ten play is right around the corner. Oh, and NDSU doesn’t have Carson Wentz behind center anymore. Time to take a breather and get healthy while also winning? Not so fast, as NDSU has an FBS-caliber roster and isn’t afraid of the big, bad Power 5 conference teams. Still, Iowa’s defense will be stout enough against the passing game to make life very difficult for the Bison and I see a much easier victory than Dave. For his thoughts on the game, go to the talking10 podcast.

at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Andy: Win
Dave: Win
Kevin: Win
Zach: Win

A new era begins in Piscataway, but this will start much like the last era finished for Rutgers — with a loss. Simply put, the Hawkeyes are a machine at this point and the Scarlet Knights are just trying to figure out how all the parts get put together. Sure, a road trip that far East can be challenging, just not this season. Iowa grounds the Scarlet Knights defense down and bursts through with a second half victory.

vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Andy: Win
Dave: Win
Kevin: Win
Zach: Win

This one is all about location, location, location. In this case, that means advantage Iowa in what actually has become a very competitive and fun series since these two have been paired up in the same division since the move to a divisional format happened in 2011. Something strange is likely to happen in this game, but that something strange means an Iowa win…I’m just not sure what specifically will happen to make it go down like that.

at Minnesota Gophers
Andy: Win
Dave: Win
Kevin: Win
Zach: Win

Who doesn’t love a battle for a bronze pig? With Floyd of Rosedale on the line and Minnesota hungry to not have its trophy case empty anymore this has the potential to be a bellwether game for both teams. If Iowa wants to win the West, it has to win this game. If Minnesota wants to be a true contender, it also has to win this one. Truthfully, I had a hard time picking between these two because their two-deeps are so similar, but there’s something about C.J. Beathard that makes me believe he will just edge out veteran Mitch Leidner in a surprising QB duel at “The Bank.”

at Purdue Boilermakers
Andy: Win
Dave: Win
Kevin: Win
Zach: Win

There isn’t much sadder in the Big Ten these days than Purdue football (o.k. maybe Minnesota and Rutgers basketball too). Iowa should be on its way to controlling their Big Ten West fate, and a win here will cement them as a clear leader heading in to the home stretch of the season. That’s exactly what they get as Purdue struggles to keep from getting pounded in to submission via Iowa’s rushing offense.

vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Andy: Loss
Dave: Win
Kevin: Loss
Zach: Loss

The question here is just how bruised and battered are the Badgers heading in to the battle for the Heartland Trophy? UW will come in on the heels of back-to-back-to-back games against Michigan State, Michigan and Ohio State. Still, that likely makes UW desperate and hungry for a victory. It is tempting to take the home team, but ultimately it comes down to Wisconsin’s improved offensive run game and Iowa’s losses in the front seven. I’m taking the Badgers in a close, but much more entertaining affair than last season’s 10-6 debacle in Madison.

at Penn State Nittany Lions
Andy: Loss
Dave: Loss
Kevin: Loss
Zach: Loss

Call us all crazy, but I believe we all see the same combination of factors — Iowa finally being tested the week before and a nasty trip to Happy Valley here. This one is all down to PSU playing at home in front of a crazy crowd that Iowa ends up not being able to handle. Penn State jumps out to an early lead and Iowa never can quite catch up.

vs. Michigan Wolverines
Andy: Win
Dave: Win
Kevin: Loss
Zach: Loss

For those of you around every week at this time, here is my reminder that I just don’t believe Michigan is as good as advertised in 2016. They have a QB issue, the same running backs that have had issues the last two seasons and the same offensive line that has been slow to mature. What does Iowa have? One of the best secondaries in the Big Ten and a great group of linebackers. It all adds up to a recipe for disaster in Kinnick Stadium for the Wolverines.

at Illinois Fighting Illini
Andy: Win
Dave: Win
Kevin: Win
Zach: Win

No team is harder to look at right now and know exactly what they will look like in mid-August, let alone mid-November, than the Illini. What does intrigue me in this matchup will be the chess match between two great minds of the game — Kirk Ferentz vs. Lovie Smith. I believe Smith could win that battle, but may not have the horses to get the job done as consistently as it will take to beat Iowa. One or two big plays are the difference in this one.

vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Andy: Win
Dave: Loss
Kevin: Loss
Zach: Win

Could the Big Ten title finally come down to the Heroes Game? It would be a dream come true for those in the Big Ten front office, and it seems like most of our staff believes this game is going to really matter to the hopes of one of the participants. This one just simply comes down to home field advantage, and Iowa has it this season. It also has a much more solid situation at running back, and that will matter a lot in this one. Iowa gets the win, clinches the Big Ten West division title just in the nick of time.

 

Season Records:

Andy: 10-2 (7-2 B1G)
Dave: 9-3 (7-2 B1G)
Kevin: 8-4 (5-4 B1G)
Zach: 8-4 (5-4 B1G)

Our Projected Big Ten Standings

Andy Dave Zach Kevin
Big Ten East
1
2 Michigan State Michigan State
3 Michigan State Michigan State
4
5 Indiana Indiana  Indiana
6 Maryland Maryland
7 Maryland Maryland
Big Ten West
1 Wisconsin Iowa Nebraska Wisconsin
2 Iowa Wisconsin Wisconsin Nebraska
3 Nebraska Nebraska Iowa Iowa
4 Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota
5
6 Purdue
7 Purdue Purdue  Purdue

Andy Coppens is the Founder and Publisher of Talking10. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA) and has been covering college sports in some capacity since 2008. You can follow him on Twitter @AndyOnFootball

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Hawkeyes Football

Predicting the 2018 Iowa Hawkeyes season

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There’s nothing worse than pundits who put out season record predictions and then can never tell you other than in generalities how they got there. 

It’s why every season we go game-by-game with you through each and every one of the Big Ten teams. Up today are the Iowa Hawkeyes, who are looking to upend bitter rival Wisconsin for the second time in three years. 

How does that hope play out in reality? Well, here’s how our Publisher, Andrew Coppens, sees it happening: 

Don’t forget to hit the subscribe button on our YouTube page! You don’t want to miss the rest in this series and our video work all throughout the 2018 Big Ten football season. 

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Hawkeyes Football

An early look at the 2018 Iowa Hawkeyes defense

Iowa faces another big transition, but this time it is on the defensive side of the ball. What does 2018 look like for the Hawkeyes defense.

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Kirk Ferentz returns as the dean of Big Ten coaches heading in to 2018, and that means the well-oiled machine that is the Iowa Hawkeyes program won’t be changing it m.o. much.

But, coming off a second mediocre season after a Big Ten title game appearance, what will 2018 bring for the Hawkeyes? Will it be a rise to the top of the West division or will they struggle against rising rivals like Minnesota and Wisconsin again?

We began to dive in to the Hawkeyes with a look at the 2018 offense, next up is a look at the other side of the ball.

Biggest Question Mark:

Can Iowa replace all of its starting linebackers?

One look at the depth chart at the end of the 2017 season shows the easy answer to the biggest question — Iowa losses all three end of season starting linebackers. Ben Niemann, Josey Jewell and Bo Bower are all gone from a tough Iowa defense in 2017.

Not only is that trio gone, but they have been at the core of this defense for a few years now. The trio combined for 305 tackles, 23.0 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks, while also being the team’s top three tacklers on the year. Talk about tough acts to follow?

More worrisome is that there wasn’t a lot of production from the understudies this season. Amani Jones is the leading returning tackler at linebacker, and he had all of eight of them this season, same for potential starter at middle linebacker Kristian Welch. Are those two capable of stepping up? It’s a serious question to ask this offseason. But, neither are guaranteed starting minutes either.

No matter who ends up filling their shoes, it is going to be a tough act to follow in 2018. Do the Hawkeyes have the parts to get the job done in a defense that needs its linebackers to be assignment sure and tough?

Reason to Be Optimistic:

A veteran defensive line

While the linebacking group got a lot of attention in 2017, the performance of Iowa’s d-line was equally impressive and almost all of it will be returning in 2018. Three of the top four players on the tackles for loss list were defensive linemen in 2017 and only Nathan Bazata and his 6.5 tackles for loss are gone.

Parker Hesse and Anthony Nelson are great building blocks, but freshman A.J. Epenesa could be the real star of this group. He started off his career at Iowa with just 15 tackles in 13 games, but he also managed to rack up 5.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks in that same time frame. He may have a hard time cracking the starting lineup with Hesse and Nelson entrenched at the end positions, but it is a nice problem to have compared to what is happening behind them.

There will be an interesting competition between former backup defensive tackles Brady Reiff and Cedrick Lattimore in replacing Bazata as a starter in 2018. Both had good years in backup roles, again a nice problem to have.

When you are reloading or rebuilding at linebacker, it certainly helps to have the guys in front of them capable of picking up some slack, and that’s what Iowa has in its defensive line for 2018.

Reason to be Pessimistic:

No Josey Jewell

While the early loss of cornerback Joshua Jackson the NFL draft isn’t ideal, Iowa has shown it can overcome the loss of elite secondary players before. Desmond King was great, but Iowa hardly missed a beat once he graduated and Jackson had a lot to do with that. We’ve already talked about the loss of all three starting linebackers, but only one of them stands above the crowd and his name is Josey Jewell.

He was the heart and soul of the Hawkeyes defense for the past two seasons and the quintessential Hawkeye of this generation. Just how important was Jewell to the Iowa program? Try replacing 433 tackles, 28 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, 6 interceptions and 26 passes defensed for one’s career.

That alone would be enough, but Jewell was an invaluable leader too. Where the leadership comes from is almost as important as the raw production, and with all the transition happening at linebacker heading in to 2018 that loss of leadership is going to be huge. If the Hawkeyes don’t find the kind of leadership Jewell provided there could be trouble for the Hawkeyes in a suddenly improving West division.

Projected Starting Lineup:

DE: Anthony Nelson, Jr.
DT: Matt Nelson, Sr.
DT: Cedrick Lattimore, Jr.
DE: Parker Hesse, Sr.
OLB: Aaron Mends, Sr.
MLB: Kristian Welch, Jr.
OLB: Amani Jones, So.
CB: Michael Ojemudia, Jr.
FS: Jake Gervase, Sr.
SS: Amani Hooker, Jr.
CB: Matt Hankins, So.

Overall Outlook:

It will be very interesting to see how the Hawkeyes regroup from the loss of all three starting linebackers and half of its starting secondary. Luckily, Iowa has shown a history of being able to build talent behind the scenes and when it comes their turn they show up.

However, this season feels a bit different, especially at linebacker. The backups played sparingly and are very young overall. This offseason is going to be key to their development, but I’m not sold they have the immediate answers there and that has always been a bad sign during the Ferentz era.

We’ll see if the line can hold this group up while people are learning on the job behind them. But, keep a keen eye on the development at linebacker and safety this offseason. If there are questions still left following spring ball, this could be a classic case of the third year following a big season slide from Ferentz-led Hawkeye programs.

This offseason will test the plug-and-play mantra unlike just about any in the Ferentz era that I can personally remember.

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Hawkeyes Football

An early look at the 2018 Iowa Hawkeyes offense

Iowa’s offense loses a key piece to the puzzle in 2018, but can returning players pick up the slack and lead Hawkeyes back to top of West division?

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Kirk Ferentz returns as the dean of Big Ten coaches heading in to 2018, and that means the well-oiled machine that is the Iowa Hawkeyes program won’t be changing it m.o. much.

But, coming off a second mediocre season after a Big Ten title game appearance, what will 2018 bring for the Hawkeyes? Will it be a rise to the top of the West division or will they struggle against rising rivals like Minnesota and Wisconsin again?

We begin to dive in to the Hawkeyes with a look at the 2018 offense

Biggest Question Mark:

Where’s the star power?

Iowa may never be accused of being a sexy program, especially on offense, but that doesn’t mean the Hawkeyes haven’t had their fair share of stars in the past.

Maybe that person is Noah Fant? The Hawkeyes tight end did lead his position group in touchdown receptions with 11 on the season. But, he won’t sneak up on anyone in 2018 and he had 30 receptions for 494 yards to go with those 11 touchdowns. But, how sexy is the tight end position if you aren’t winning divisions and conference titles?

Maybe the answer is Nate Stanley? He did have 26 touchdown passes in 2017. On the flip side, the first-year starter also barely completed over 55 percent of his passes.

Maybe the answer is Ivory Kelly-Martin, who led the team in rushing average at 9.2 yards per carry? Then again, that was his freshman season and most of his 20 carries came in complete garbage time.

I think you get the point here. Where is the star that will take Iowa back to a division title and a trip to Indianapolis? Finding an answer or two to the star-power question will go a long way towards making that division title possible. I just don’t know who that person really is going to be.

Reason to Be Optimistic:

Nate Stanley has the tools to be great

Whenever you transition from a long-time starter to someone new, things can be difficult for an offense. The good news in 2017 was that first-time starter Nate Stanley didn’t show any signs of being overwhelmed by being the starting quarterback for the first time.

He did enough to nearly help his team upset Penn State and was the reason for Iowa dominating Ohio State in the biggest upset in the Big Ten in 2017. Stanley ended the year completing just 55.8 percent of his passes for 2,437 yards — which won’t jump off the page at you — but he had a healthy 26 touchdowns to just six interceptions.

That last part of the stat line is the good news. So is the fact that he completed 63.5 percent of his passes for an average of 256 yards per game and 12 touchdowns against zero interceptions versus Iowa State, Penn State and Ohio State.

Sure, there were inconsistencies too (see that horrible Wisconsin game). But, how much of that was on him and how much of that was on a group of receivers and tight ends that most diehard fans around the Big Ten couldn’t name? In the end, Stanley showed that he was up to the task of filling C.J. Beathard’s big shoes.

Take the lessons learned from 2017 and build on it in 2018 and Stanley has the potential to be the best quarterback in the West division. That should be a good place for the Hawkeyes of 2018 start.

Reason to be Pessimistic:

Akrum Wadley isn’t around anymore

Iowa, much like its counterparts at Nebraska and Wisconsin, is always at its best when it has a dynamic running back and a dominating offensive line. One could say the offensive line wasn’t up to par in 2017, but they did have that dynamic running back in Akrum Wadley.

He finished last season with 1,109 yards and 10 touchdowns. That accounted for 61.2 percent of Iowa’s rushing total and 10 of the 17 rushing touchdowns this team had in 2017.

That’s a lot of production to lose, and then you add in the graduation of the second-leading rusher, James Butler, and you are left with a lot of question marks at a vital position group. Toren Young could be a good option, but as a redshirt freshman Young managed just 193 yards on 45 carries in seven games of action. There is fellow youngster Ivory Kelly-Martin to look at too, as he had 184 yards on just 20 carries.

I’m not saying there isn’t potential here, but there’s a big difference between beating up on the backups of non-conference opponents and the pounding of a Big Ten season. Can Young and Kelly-Martin parlay good experience in backup roles in to consistent production when they are the only ones that can be counted on?

Projected Starting Lineup:

QB: Nate Stanley, Jr.
RB: Toren Young, So.
FB: Brady Ross, Jr.
WR: Nick Easley, Sr.
WR: Brandon Smith, So.
TE: Noah Fant, Jr.
LT: Alaric Jackson, So.
LG: Keegan Render, Sr.
C: James Daniels, Sr.
RG: Levin Paulson, Jr.
RT: Tristan Wirfs, So.

Overall Outlook

The 2018 offense is hard to read for the Hawkeyes. On the one hand it has some really nice parts to it, on the other hand are those parts better than what the competition in the West division has? It’s hard to say that is the case in any meaningful way.

A lot of what happens for the Hawkeyes offense in 2018 is likely to hinge on the continued improvement of the offensive line. There is some hope there with names like James Daniels, Alaric Jackson and especially young tackle Tristan Wirfs. If this group makes the necessary steps in the offseason, Iowa’s offense may just be able to compete.

There are a lot of ifs and maybes associated with the Hawkeyes offense, and this offseason is going to be key to deciding the near and long-term direction of this side of the ball. Let’s see if young players can make the jumps needed to make this offense more competitive in a quickly changing West division.

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Boilers Football

Early Big Ten results remind us why bowl season matters

Don’t tell Iowa, Michigan State and Purdue that their bowl games and wins were meaningless, because they sure weren’t.

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Bowl season is usually a cruel, cruel mistress to the Big Ten. Let’s just say hopes always start high and results crash fans of the teams in the conference back down to earth quickly.

There are a myriad of reasons and excuses often given, and some of them are valid (or at least used to be). Examples usually include the fact that 90 percent of the games are played well outside of the Big Ten footprint and the old reliable of huge disparities in caliber of opponents (addressed a bit by the last change in bowl alignment).

So, as the 2017-18 bowl season got underway it was hard to expect much from the Big Ten. After all, the conference teams managed to go just 3-7 last year and only one of those three wins was very meaningful (Wisconsin over Western Michigan in the Cotton Bowl).

Then the games were played and we here in Big Ten country have been reminded just how meaningful bowl season really is.

Purdue not only got to a bowl game, but it won its bowl game against another offense-first team in Arizona. Sophomore quarterback Elijah Sindelar overcame injury and threw for nearly 400 yards (396 to be exact) and four touchdowns, while running back D.J. Knox had 101 yards on 11 carries.

If you believe bowl games don’t matter, just talk to anyone on the Purdue or Arizona sidelines following that game. Going 7-6 in season one under Jeff Brohm was huge, but most importantly it sets new expectations for the program’s floor going forward.

When is the last time there were anything but dreadful expectations surrounding the Purdue football program? If anything, that should tell you just how meaningful bowl games are.

But, it was just Purdue’s three-point win out in the Foster Farms Bowl that showcased the importance of winning so-called meaningless bowl games.

Michigan State not only rebounded from a 3-9 season to go 9-3, but it just beat a fellow top 25 program in Washington State. Sure, you can point to Luke Falk being out of the game, but the Spartans looked like the Spartans that climbed their way to the College Football Playoff just two years ago again.

Dantonio’s crew pounded the ball down the throat of Wazzu’s smaller defensive line and that led to LJ Scott putting up 110 yards on just 18 carries. Meanwhile, the Spartans defense held the Cougars high-scoring offense to just 17 points in the 42-17 win in the Holiday Bowl.

Think MSU will be overlooked by bowl games in the future again?

Even Iowa, who had the most maddening up and down season of any Big Ten team, pulled off a win in the opening game for a Big Ten team this bowl season.

It wasn’t always pretty, but in a matchup of two 7-5 teams, what else would you expect? Most importantly, the game showed that Iowa could win a close game against a quality defense. For a team full of young players at key positions, it’s a win that builds momentum heading in to the offseason.

All three wins set up increase expectations for next season and there’s nothing better than expecting quality football and increased competition within the Big Ten at all.

Of course, the rest of the Big Ten teams in bowl games have some huge matchups to play in.

It’s a nice start to reversing the trend of horrible bowl seasons for the conference, but there’s a lot of work still to be done for the rest of the conference. With three teams in New Year’s Six bowl games, winning them puts the conference at the forefront of the offseason discussion and as much as we hate to admit it — perception is reality these days in the college football world.

That was the lesson we were supposed to take away from the College Football Playoff committee’s selection of Alabama over an actual conference champion, right?

With a snub from the College Football Playoff committee this season, a huge turnaround in bowl game results would mean a whole lot to the reputation – fair or not – of the conference going forward.

Let’s see if the early momentum can be maintained by the big dogs of the B1G.

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