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Maryland Terrapins vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: Preview, predictions and prognostications

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When: Sat., Oct. 31; 3:30p.m. ET
Where: Iowa City, IA; Kinnick Stadium
TV: ABC/ESPN2
All-Time Series: Maryland leads 1-0
Last Meeting: Maryland 38-31 (2014)
Line: Iowa -17

Here’s two teams heading in drastically different directions, as Maryland stands in last place in the East Division with an 0-3 record and Iowa leads the West Division with a 3-0 record. Will those trends continue on Halloween, or is there a spooky trap awaiting the Hawkeyes when the Terrapins come into Iowa City for a first ever game at Kinnick Stadium? Let’s count to five and see who will win this cross division game.

1 Burning Question: Can Maryland keep up with Iowa in the Running Game?

Since taking over the starting quarterback job in the Ohio State game, Maryland quarterback Perry Hills has brought more of a running threat to complement the Terrapin running backs. That has helped Maryland be carried by the third-best rushing attack in the Big Ten, averaging 186 yards per game.  That’s actually more than the Terrapins get in the passing game, which ranks last in the conference at 172 yards per game.

However, Iowa also is a run-driven team as always, and the Hawkeyes are second in the conference with a 214 yard per game average. Iowa also effectively stops the run, only surrendering 74 yards per game thus far. By contrast, Maryland is giving up 175 yards per game on the ground. That’s a massive difference between these defenses.

Thus, on paper, this looks like a perfect matchup for Iowa as the Hawkeyes are built to stop the run and control tempo with the offensive running game, while Maryland is poor at passing the ball. Iowa will expect to take away the run and shut Maryland’s offense completely down.

It will therefore be absolutely critical for Maryland to stop this from happening, as that would put too much pressure on Hills in a tough road environment. This is the key question to watch, as it could make the difference between Iowa covering that big spread with a blowout, and a close game that Maryland could win, like in the first meeting between these teams last year in Byrd Stadium.

2 Key Stats

— 19.9 and 15.7. Those are the punt return averages for Maryland and Iowa, respectively, by far the best in the conference. Will Likely has shredded opposing punt coverage units this season, generating two punt return touchdowns (leading the NCAA). However, Desmond King has been lighting things up for Iowa, a team that almost did away with punt returns altogether after a couple of frustrating seasons in 2013 and 2014. Both of these guys are defensive specialists, so getting extra opportunities to play in the open field with the ball is a great chance to make important game-changing plays. Don’t miss any punts in this game!

— +7 vs. -13. That’s Iowa’s turnover margin on the season compared to Maryland’s. The Hawkeyes are only 3 turnovers away from leading the conference in turnover margin, which may help explain the 7-0 start. Meanwhile, Maryland has been anything but careful with the ball, turning it over 24 times in 7 games. 20 of those turnovers are interceptions, and Desmond King and the Iowa secondary is good enough to continue grabbing interceptions in this game. If that happens and this statistic does not turn around, Maryland won’t be able to keep up on the road.

3 Key Players

C.J. Beathard, Iowa QB — When Beathard has been most effective this season, he has been healthy enough to roll out to extend passing plays and open potential running lanes. Other than Tommy Armstrong and J.T. Barrett, Beathard is the strongest run-pass threat at this position in the conference, with 194 yards rushing to go along with 1415 yards passing. However, heading into the bye week he was at about 50% health with legs and a groin injury. If he continues to be hobbled even after the bye week, that could be troublesome in future games. Look for Maryland to test him out with some pressure early, but his health will be key to this game and all others down the stretch.

Yannick Ngakoue, Maryland DL — It would be tempting to just say Will Likely here since he plays offense, defense, and special teams now, I’m going to stick with a lineman as the key player for the Terrapins this game. Ngakoue has nine sacks and nine tackles for loss on the season, and he will be a primary threat to Beathard and his health. If Iowa does not contain him properly, then Likely and the other Maryland defensive backs could have chances to intercept mistakes that could be made by the Hawkeyes.

Desmond King, Iowa CB — King came up as a prominent role in both of the 2 key statistics above, and he will have a big chance to shine in this game. Regardless of whether Maryland is punting to him, or Perry Hills is putting up balls in the passing game, King will have numerous chances to make the play that puts this game away. King has 6 interceptions, which is only 2 behind the school record, and that record seems destined to fall before the 2015 season is complete.

4 Bold Prognostications

Desmond King and Will Likely BOTH generate a touchdown: Both of these players will focus more on defense and special teams, as noted above, but this seems like the type of game where both quarterbacks may make mistakes. Likewise, the punt coverage game has been better for Iowa than in the past, but Maryland struggles in this phase. Thus, I call for both of these dynamic players to show off skills with positive benefits on Saturday.

Iowa holds Maryland to less than 50 yards rushing: The Hawkeyes have prided themselves on stuffing the run so far this season, holding opponents to 74 yards per game. Maryland has struggled to threaten much in the running game, even with the 70 yard per game or so from Brandon Ross. Iowa would prefer to force Perry Hills to try and win the game with his arm and passing game, as Maryland has not proven capable of that so far in 2015. At home, I expect this game to go really well for the Hawkeyes defense with another run-stopping performance.

Iowa will dominate time of possession by a margin of over 10 or 15 minutes: The imbalance in the running game defense was outlined above, and that will certainly help Iowa maintain long possessions compared to the Terrapins. Additionally, Iowa converts 44% of third downs and 67% of fourth downs, while Maryland converts only 33% of third downs and 25% of fourth downs. That means Iowa is significantly better at keeping drives going in an extended fashion, while Maryland is subject to a lot of three-and-outs. That trend continues and likely causes Maryland to wear out by the late second half.

Kirk Ferentz will go for fourth down conversions more than Mike Locksley: When a big underdog goes on the road, typically that underdog is the team that is forced to go for fourth downs to keep up with the better team. However, it seems about time for Kirk Ferentz to pull out a couple of tricks following a bye week, both to try and exploit Maryland as well as to give future opponents more things on tape to think about. Iowa has averaged about 20 fourth down attempts per season since 2011, and to get back on that track, Iowa should go for it in this game liberally.

5 Staff Predictions (overall season record; record against the spread)

Andy: Iowa 38-10 (65-15 overall; 35-44 ATS)
Dave: Iowa 31-21 (65-15 overall; 43-35 ATS)
Greg: Iowa 35-20 (59-21 overall; 44-34 ATS)
Matt: Iowa 37-17 (64-16 overall; 48-30 ATS)
Phil: Iowa 27-14 (19-8 overall; 9-15 ATS) *joined in Week 5

Dave is a FWAA member and a Columnist focusing on Big Ten football for talking10. Before joining talking in 2014, he was a Featured Columnist for three years at Bleacher Report and previously wrote for seven years on SouthernCollegeSports.com. He was born in Hawkeye Country and went to college in Columbus, so there's plenty of B1G running through his blood. Dave is a patent and trademark attorney in his day job. If you have any questions in those areas or about his latest articles, please contact him on Twitter @BuckeyeFitzy.

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Hawkeyes Football

Predicting the 2018 Iowa Hawkeyes season

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There’s nothing worse than pundits who put out season record predictions and then can never tell you other than in generalities how they got there. 

It’s why every season we go game-by-game with you through each and every one of the Big Ten teams. Up today are the Iowa Hawkeyes, who are looking to upend bitter rival Wisconsin for the second time in three years. 

How does that hope play out in reality? Well, here’s how our Publisher, Andrew Coppens, sees it happening: 

Don’t forget to hit the subscribe button on our YouTube page! You don’t want to miss the rest in this series and our video work all throughout the 2018 Big Ten football season. 

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Hawkeyes Football

An early look at the 2018 Iowa Hawkeyes defense

Iowa faces another big transition, but this time it is on the defensive side of the ball. What does 2018 look like for the Hawkeyes defense.

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Kirk Ferentz returns as the dean of Big Ten coaches heading in to 2018, and that means the well-oiled machine that is the Iowa Hawkeyes program won’t be changing it m.o. much.

But, coming off a second mediocre season after a Big Ten title game appearance, what will 2018 bring for the Hawkeyes? Will it be a rise to the top of the West division or will they struggle against rising rivals like Minnesota and Wisconsin again?

We began to dive in to the Hawkeyes with a look at the 2018 offense, next up is a look at the other side of the ball.

Biggest Question Mark:

Can Iowa replace all of its starting linebackers?

One look at the depth chart at the end of the 2017 season shows the easy answer to the biggest question — Iowa losses all three end of season starting linebackers. Ben Niemann, Josey Jewell and Bo Bower are all gone from a tough Iowa defense in 2017.

Not only is that trio gone, but they have been at the core of this defense for a few years now. The trio combined for 305 tackles, 23.0 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks, while also being the team’s top three tacklers on the year. Talk about tough acts to follow?

More worrisome is that there wasn’t a lot of production from the understudies this season. Amani Jones is the leading returning tackler at linebacker, and he had all of eight of them this season, same for potential starter at middle linebacker Kristian Welch. Are those two capable of stepping up? It’s a serious question to ask this offseason. But, neither are guaranteed starting minutes either.

No matter who ends up filling their shoes, it is going to be a tough act to follow in 2018. Do the Hawkeyes have the parts to get the job done in a defense that needs its linebackers to be assignment sure and tough?

Reason to Be Optimistic:

A veteran defensive line

While the linebacking group got a lot of attention in 2017, the performance of Iowa’s d-line was equally impressive and almost all of it will be returning in 2018. Three of the top four players on the tackles for loss list were defensive linemen in 2017 and only Nathan Bazata and his 6.5 tackles for loss are gone.

Parker Hesse and Anthony Nelson are great building blocks, but freshman A.J. Epenesa could be the real star of this group. He started off his career at Iowa with just 15 tackles in 13 games, but he also managed to rack up 5.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks in that same time frame. He may have a hard time cracking the starting lineup with Hesse and Nelson entrenched at the end positions, but it is a nice problem to have compared to what is happening behind them.

There will be an interesting competition between former backup defensive tackles Brady Reiff and Cedrick Lattimore in replacing Bazata as a starter in 2018. Both had good years in backup roles, again a nice problem to have.

When you are reloading or rebuilding at linebacker, it certainly helps to have the guys in front of them capable of picking up some slack, and that’s what Iowa has in its defensive line for 2018.

Reason to be Pessimistic:

No Josey Jewell

While the early loss of cornerback Joshua Jackson the NFL draft isn’t ideal, Iowa has shown it can overcome the loss of elite secondary players before. Desmond King was great, but Iowa hardly missed a beat once he graduated and Jackson had a lot to do with that. We’ve already talked about the loss of all three starting linebackers, but only one of them stands above the crowd and his name is Josey Jewell.

He was the heart and soul of the Hawkeyes defense for the past two seasons and the quintessential Hawkeye of this generation. Just how important was Jewell to the Iowa program? Try replacing 433 tackles, 28 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, 6 interceptions and 26 passes defensed for one’s career.

That alone would be enough, but Jewell was an invaluable leader too. Where the leadership comes from is almost as important as the raw production, and with all the transition happening at linebacker heading in to 2018 that loss of leadership is going to be huge. If the Hawkeyes don’t find the kind of leadership Jewell provided there could be trouble for the Hawkeyes in a suddenly improving West division.

Projected Starting Lineup:

DE: Anthony Nelson, Jr.
DT: Matt Nelson, Sr.
DT: Cedrick Lattimore, Jr.
DE: Parker Hesse, Sr.
OLB: Aaron Mends, Sr.
MLB: Kristian Welch, Jr.
OLB: Amani Jones, So.
CB: Michael Ojemudia, Jr.
FS: Jake Gervase, Sr.
SS: Amani Hooker, Jr.
CB: Matt Hankins, So.

Overall Outlook:

It will be very interesting to see how the Hawkeyes regroup from the loss of all three starting linebackers and half of its starting secondary. Luckily, Iowa has shown a history of being able to build talent behind the scenes and when it comes their turn they show up.

However, this season feels a bit different, especially at linebacker. The backups played sparingly and are very young overall. This offseason is going to be key to their development, but I’m not sold they have the immediate answers there and that has always been a bad sign during the Ferentz era.

We’ll see if the line can hold this group up while people are learning on the job behind them. But, keep a keen eye on the development at linebacker and safety this offseason. If there are questions still left following spring ball, this could be a classic case of the third year following a big season slide from Ferentz-led Hawkeye programs.

This offseason will test the plug-and-play mantra unlike just about any in the Ferentz era that I can personally remember.

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Hawkeyes Football

An early look at the 2018 Iowa Hawkeyes offense

Iowa’s offense loses a key piece to the puzzle in 2018, but can returning players pick up the slack and lead Hawkeyes back to top of West division?

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Kirk Ferentz returns as the dean of Big Ten coaches heading in to 2018, and that means the well-oiled machine that is the Iowa Hawkeyes program won’t be changing it m.o. much.

But, coming off a second mediocre season after a Big Ten title game appearance, what will 2018 bring for the Hawkeyes? Will it be a rise to the top of the West division or will they struggle against rising rivals like Minnesota and Wisconsin again?

We begin to dive in to the Hawkeyes with a look at the 2018 offense

Biggest Question Mark:

Where’s the star power?

Iowa may never be accused of being a sexy program, especially on offense, but that doesn’t mean the Hawkeyes haven’t had their fair share of stars in the past.

Maybe that person is Noah Fant? The Hawkeyes tight end did lead his position group in touchdown receptions with 11 on the season. But, he won’t sneak up on anyone in 2018 and he had 30 receptions for 494 yards to go with those 11 touchdowns. But, how sexy is the tight end position if you aren’t winning divisions and conference titles?

Maybe the answer is Nate Stanley? He did have 26 touchdown passes in 2017. On the flip side, the first-year starter also barely completed over 55 percent of his passes.

Maybe the answer is Ivory Kelly-Martin, who led the team in rushing average at 9.2 yards per carry? Then again, that was his freshman season and most of his 20 carries came in complete garbage time.

I think you get the point here. Where is the star that will take Iowa back to a division title and a trip to Indianapolis? Finding an answer or two to the star-power question will go a long way towards making that division title possible. I just don’t know who that person really is going to be.

Reason to Be Optimistic:

Nate Stanley has the tools to be great

Whenever you transition from a long-time starter to someone new, things can be difficult for an offense. The good news in 2017 was that first-time starter Nate Stanley didn’t show any signs of being overwhelmed by being the starting quarterback for the first time.

He did enough to nearly help his team upset Penn State and was the reason for Iowa dominating Ohio State in the biggest upset in the Big Ten in 2017. Stanley ended the year completing just 55.8 percent of his passes for 2,437 yards — which won’t jump off the page at you — but he had a healthy 26 touchdowns to just six interceptions.

That last part of the stat line is the good news. So is the fact that he completed 63.5 percent of his passes for an average of 256 yards per game and 12 touchdowns against zero interceptions versus Iowa State, Penn State and Ohio State.

Sure, there were inconsistencies too (see that horrible Wisconsin game). But, how much of that was on him and how much of that was on a group of receivers and tight ends that most diehard fans around the Big Ten couldn’t name? In the end, Stanley showed that he was up to the task of filling C.J. Beathard’s big shoes.

Take the lessons learned from 2017 and build on it in 2018 and Stanley has the potential to be the best quarterback in the West division. That should be a good place for the Hawkeyes of 2018 start.

Reason to be Pessimistic:

Akrum Wadley isn’t around anymore

Iowa, much like its counterparts at Nebraska and Wisconsin, is always at its best when it has a dynamic running back and a dominating offensive line. One could say the offensive line wasn’t up to par in 2017, but they did have that dynamic running back in Akrum Wadley.

He finished last season with 1,109 yards and 10 touchdowns. That accounted for 61.2 percent of Iowa’s rushing total and 10 of the 17 rushing touchdowns this team had in 2017.

That’s a lot of production to lose, and then you add in the graduation of the second-leading rusher, James Butler, and you are left with a lot of question marks at a vital position group. Toren Young could be a good option, but as a redshirt freshman Young managed just 193 yards on 45 carries in seven games of action. There is fellow youngster Ivory Kelly-Martin to look at too, as he had 184 yards on just 20 carries.

I’m not saying there isn’t potential here, but there’s a big difference between beating up on the backups of non-conference opponents and the pounding of a Big Ten season. Can Young and Kelly-Martin parlay good experience in backup roles in to consistent production when they are the only ones that can be counted on?

Projected Starting Lineup:

QB: Nate Stanley, Jr.
RB: Toren Young, So.
FB: Brady Ross, Jr.
WR: Nick Easley, Sr.
WR: Brandon Smith, So.
TE: Noah Fant, Jr.
LT: Alaric Jackson, So.
LG: Keegan Render, Sr.
C: James Daniels, Sr.
RG: Levin Paulson, Jr.
RT: Tristan Wirfs, So.

Overall Outlook

The 2018 offense is hard to read for the Hawkeyes. On the one hand it has some really nice parts to it, on the other hand are those parts better than what the competition in the West division has? It’s hard to say that is the case in any meaningful way.

A lot of what happens for the Hawkeyes offense in 2018 is likely to hinge on the continued improvement of the offensive line. There is some hope there with names like James Daniels, Alaric Jackson and especially young tackle Tristan Wirfs. If this group makes the necessary steps in the offseason, Iowa’s offense may just be able to compete.

There are a lot of ifs and maybes associated with the Hawkeyes offense, and this offseason is going to be key to deciding the near and long-term direction of this side of the ball. Let’s see if young players can make the jumps needed to make this offense more competitive in a quickly changing West division.

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Boilers Football

Early Big Ten results remind us why bowl season matters

Don’t tell Iowa, Michigan State and Purdue that their bowl games and wins were meaningless, because they sure weren’t.

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Bowl season is usually a cruel, cruel mistress to the Big Ten. Let’s just say hopes always start high and results crash fans of the teams in the conference back down to earth quickly.

There are a myriad of reasons and excuses often given, and some of them are valid (or at least used to be). Examples usually include the fact that 90 percent of the games are played well outside of the Big Ten footprint and the old reliable of huge disparities in caliber of opponents (addressed a bit by the last change in bowl alignment).

So, as the 2017-18 bowl season got underway it was hard to expect much from the Big Ten. After all, the conference teams managed to go just 3-7 last year and only one of those three wins was very meaningful (Wisconsin over Western Michigan in the Cotton Bowl).

Then the games were played and we here in Big Ten country have been reminded just how meaningful bowl season really is.

Purdue not only got to a bowl game, but it won its bowl game against another offense-first team in Arizona. Sophomore quarterback Elijah Sindelar overcame injury and threw for nearly 400 yards (396 to be exact) and four touchdowns, while running back D.J. Knox had 101 yards on 11 carries.

If you believe bowl games don’t matter, just talk to anyone on the Purdue or Arizona sidelines following that game. Going 7-6 in season one under Jeff Brohm was huge, but most importantly it sets new expectations for the program’s floor going forward.

When is the last time there were anything but dreadful expectations surrounding the Purdue football program? If anything, that should tell you just how meaningful bowl games are.

But, it was just Purdue’s three-point win out in the Foster Farms Bowl that showcased the importance of winning so-called meaningless bowl games.

Michigan State not only rebounded from a 3-9 season to go 9-3, but it just beat a fellow top 25 program in Washington State. Sure, you can point to Luke Falk being out of the game, but the Spartans looked like the Spartans that climbed their way to the College Football Playoff just two years ago again.

Dantonio’s crew pounded the ball down the throat of Wazzu’s smaller defensive line and that led to LJ Scott putting up 110 yards on just 18 carries. Meanwhile, the Spartans defense held the Cougars high-scoring offense to just 17 points in the 42-17 win in the Holiday Bowl.

Think MSU will be overlooked by bowl games in the future again?

Even Iowa, who had the most maddening up and down season of any Big Ten team, pulled off a win in the opening game for a Big Ten team this bowl season.

It wasn’t always pretty, but in a matchup of two 7-5 teams, what else would you expect? Most importantly, the game showed that Iowa could win a close game against a quality defense. For a team full of young players at key positions, it’s a win that builds momentum heading in to the offseason.

All three wins set up increase expectations for next season and there’s nothing better than expecting quality football and increased competition within the Big Ten at all.

Of course, the rest of the Big Ten teams in bowl games have some huge matchups to play in.

It’s a nice start to reversing the trend of horrible bowl seasons for the conference, but there’s a lot of work still to be done for the rest of the conference. With three teams in New Year’s Six bowl games, winning them puts the conference at the forefront of the offseason discussion and as much as we hate to admit it — perception is reality these days in the college football world.

That was the lesson we were supposed to take away from the College Football Playoff committee’s selection of Alabama over an actual conference champion, right?

With a snub from the College Football Playoff committee this season, a huge turnaround in bowl game results would mean a whole lot to the reputation – fair or not – of the conference going forward.

Let’s see if the early momentum can be maintained by the big dogs of the B1G.

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